Project Outputs
Publications from COUNSTER

Books, articles, working papers, and datasets produced within the grant.

Working Paper

The GovConReD Codebook

COUNSTER Research Team · in preparation

A methodological working paper documenting the coding scheme behind the GovConReD dataset — how attractive and repressive counstering measures are identified, classified, and validated across 1980–2030.

Working Paper

Predictors of Counstering: A Cross-National Analysis

COUNSTER Research Team · in preparation

The project's first macro-level empirical paper, testing Objective 1 hypotheses on when governments turn to attractive versus repressive strategies targeting non-state armed actors' constituencies.

Origins of the Research
Publications by Team Members Contributing to COUNSTER

Work published before or alongside the grant that laid the groundwork for the project's framework, data, and methods.

Book

Battle for Allegiance: Governments, Terrorist Groups, and Constituencies in Conflict

Efe Tokdemir · University of Michigan Press, 2020

The Principal Investigator's book on the non-violent tactics states and armed groups use to win the allegiance of the populations they compete over. Its findings on constituency allegiance directly motivate COUNSTER's triadic framework.

Journal Article

Bidding for Governance: Rebel vs. State Labor-Retention Strategies in Conflicts

Seray Yalaz, Efe Tokdemir & Seden Akcinaroglu · Journal of Peace Research, 63(3), 2026

Examines the competing bids of rebel organisations and state authorities over the rights to extract and market natural resources, introducing a framework that categorises resources by their labour dependency. It shows the pivotal role of profit — rather than legitimacy alone — in establishing rebel governance and eliciting state responses, a direct antecedent of COUNSTER's account of how governments and armed actors compete for the same constituency.

COUNSTER is a five-year project that launched in 2026. Journal articles, the full GovConReD codebook, and op-eds will be added to these lists as they appear — see the News & Events page for updates.